myTrainingForecast provides training insights for informational and educational purposes only. It is not medical advice and is not a substitute for professional diagnosis, treatment, or supervision.

Our injury-risk and training-load estimates are based on sports science and population-level models. Individual responses to training vary, so recommendations may not be appropriate for every athlete.

If you have pain, symptoms, or concerns about your health, stop training and consult a qualified medical professional.

The sole purpose of myTrainingForecast.run is to help you plan your training and reduce your risk of injury. We collect your personal data to give you personalised predictions on your training, so that you can make more informed decisions.

Visit our privacy policy page for full details of how we handle your personal information.

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This application and the content provided are for informational and educational purposes only. They are not intended to be and should not be used for diagnosing or treating health problems.

Our communications with you (via the internet, e-mail or other means) does not constitute or create a healthcare professional relationship (doctor-patient, therapist-patient or other) between you and myTrainingForecast.

By using our services you expressly agree:

• that we do not provide medical advice to you. The content provided is not intended to be and should not be used in place of the advice of your doctor, physician, physiotherapist or other medical professionals. You should never disregard, or delay seeking, medical advice because of any content presented in our services.
• to release myTrainingForecast, its subsidiaries, affiliates, officers, agents, representatives, employees, partners and licensors from any and all liability in connection with your athletic activities and/or use of the myTrainingForecast websites, mobile applications, content, services or products (including, without limitation, any myTrainingForecast training plan), and promise not to sue the released parties for any claims, actions, injuries, damages, or losses associated with such use.

myTrainingForecast is a product of:

scitracs Ltd
71-75 Shelton Street, Covent Garden, London WC2H 9JQ, United Kingdom
Registered in England and Wales (Company no. 16958383)

For enquires contact us at hello@scitracs.com

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myTrainingForecast indicates your estimated risk of overuse injury (such as runner's knee, shin splints, stress fractures, or Achilles tendonitis), relative to an average runner. It does not cover trauma injuries caused by external factors (such as tripping or ankle sprains), which cannot be predicted from training data.

Basic model

Our free model estimates the risk of injury based on your Acute:Chronic Ratio (ACR) using the methodology of Blanch & Gabbett (2015). It compares your recent training load (past 7 days) against your fitness level (past 28 days) to flag when you may be doing too much too soon. This single-metric approach is a well-established indicator of overtraining risk, but it treats all runners the same regardless of their background or training profile.

Premium model

The injury risk is based on a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model that goes well beyond a single ACR value. It incorporates multiple training load dimensions, including weekly distance, longest run, and elevation gain, each with its own acute-to-chronic ratio, because the physiological stress from a hilly week is quite different from the stress of a single long run. These training metrics are combined with individual risk factors identified through meta-analyses and systematic reviews of running injury research, such as age, sex, running experience, injury history, and baseline mileage. The result is a risk estimate that accounts for your training profile and individual characteristics, rather than just a population average. This approach captures how different runners respond differently to the same training stimulus, a 50 km week that poses low risk for an experienced runner could represent a significant increase for someone recently graduating from Couch to 5K.

Both models are grounded in peer-reviewed sports science research, including meta-analyses and systematic reviews of running injury risk factors. Unlike black-box predictions, myTF's statistical methodology is drawn from published peer-reviewed evidence with clear scientific consensus.

Your Acute:Chronic Ratio (ACR) is your 1-week load (total mileage for the past 7 days) divided by your 4-week average load (one quarter of total mileage for the past 28 days).

The acute (1-week) load represents your current training load. This is indicative of the stress your body is experiencing due to your short-term training. The chronic (4-week) load represents your current fitness level.

These ACR threshold values are evidence-based guidelines drawn from research across multiple sports and populations (Blanch & Gabbett, 2015). However, individual responses vary: while some athletes may venture into the orange or even red zone without getting hurt, others might get injured whenever they exceed 120%.

myTrainingForecast.run gives you the historic data and evidence you need to find what works for you, and which ACR zones you should train in.

Your aerobic system adapts to training in a matter of days. So you may feel that your fitness is improving quickly, and want to run more.

But connective tissues (muscles, tendons) and bones take much longer to adapt (weeks or even months). This is when running injuries can often occur: when we ramp up training faster than tissues can adapt.

Our ACR model can help you increase your training load more progressively, based on your actual progress rather than how you feel.

You can check the list of recent activities in your activities page and manually ignore any activities that you don't want to include in your training load.

If your recent activities seem to be missing, it's possible that you accidentally created multiple Strava accounts and connected the wrong one to myTrainingForecast. Please check the Strava support page for duplicate accounts: https://support.strava.com/hc/en-us/articles/216918837-Merging-Duplicate-Accounts