Why extended rest days can increase injury risk for runners (and what to do about it)

The counterintuitive relationship between training breaks and tissue vulnerability.

Noah emailed recently with a screenshot of his training data. He’d done what every sensible runner does: after a long run pushed his weekly mileage into the orange zone, he took time off to recover. His weekly mileage chart showed his acute training load shot up before reducing slowly (Figure 1A). But when he stopped going for long runs the following week his injury risk score had done something unexpected: it had climbed into the orange (Figure 1B).

Noah was surprised his risk went up as his mileage was reducing, so he emailed to ask how myTrainingForecast estimates his risk of running injury.

It’s one of those counterintuitive patterns in training data that seems to defy logic: You do the responsible thing and rest, and your injury risk goes up. What’s going on? The answer reveals something fundamental about how our bodies adapt to training, and why consistency matters more than most runners realise…

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Introducing myTrainingForecast.run: a science-based injury prevention web app

From garden ornament to running injury prediction algorithms

That massive otter statue had been at the back of our garden for years, forgotten by the previous owner, but that day in May 2017 was the day I was going to relocate it to its new home: the local tip. Skilfully manoeuvring it through the patio, down the steps, and while swinging it to enter the garage I firmly planted my right knee in the metal door frame. This was bad, I could barely walk. My first thought: “will I be able to run the Worthing 10K race in 4 days’ time?!“. I followed all the usual advice (rest, ice, compress, elevate), then warily stood at the start line but happily completed my very first 10 km race in 44:01, just a minute slower than my original target time. I knew racing straight after this injury was playing with fire, so I took 2 weeks almost completely off running to let my knee recover. What happened next completely changed the way I plan my weekly runs to stay injury-free.

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